Asian Nuclear Energy

His far-sightedness in launching systematic training for nuclear scientists and engineers is still showing results today. Indeed, in this very room we see some of the most distinguished alumni of the training school established by Dr. Bhabha in 1956 at the institution that now bears his name - the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC). They include my friend Dr. Anil Kakodkar, Chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission.

Dr. Bhabha also had the foresight to build capacity in other areas of nuclear science, including in medicine and agriculture. He was an influential figure in the birth of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which I have had the honour to lead for the past 12 years. He was Chair of the first International Conference on Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, held in Geneva in 1955, that laid the foundation for the launch of the IAEA two years later. Legend has it that Dr. Bhabha cast his vote in favour of Vienna as the seat of the Agency´s headquarters because of his great love for opera. As a music lover myself, I have special reason to be grateful to him. India has been a Member of the Board of Governors since the IAEA was established and many BARC alumni have served with distinction on the staff of the Agency.

Globally, the fortunes of nuclear energy have fluctuated since Dr. Bhabha´s untimely death in 1966. The low point was undoubtedly the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, which effectively halted the expansion in nuclear power in its tracks. However, the pendulum has swung back in the past 10 years or so and we look set for a significant expansion in global use of nuclear energy in the next 20 to 30 years. There are a number of reasons for this. The urgent and ever-growing need for energy, particularly in the developing part of the world, fluctuations in fossil fuel prices and climate change are major factors.

The world has accumulated more than 13,000 reactor-years of experience. Considerable improvements in safety since Chernobyl have been matched by improvements in efficiency. Nuclear plants are more economical to run, productivity has increased and there is less down-time for maintenance. The long-term stability of the cost of electricity generated by nuclear power is an important attraction. Public attitudes towards nuclear energy have become more positive in the past decade. But the nuclear industry needs to remain open and transparent in order to generate and maintain public trust.

Despite the global economic crisis, the IAEA´s latest projections continue to show a significant increase in nuclear generating capacity in the medium term. The low projection is now for 511 GW(e) of generating capacity in 2030, compared to 370 GW(e) today. The high projection is for 807 GW(e), more than a doubling from present levels.

Most of the 30 countries already using nuclear energy plan to expand their output. Scores of countries - mostly in the developing world - have informed the IAEA that they might be interested in launching nuclear power programmes. Of these, 12 countries are actively considering nuclear power. Growth targets have been raised significantly here in India, as well as in China and in the Russian Federation. Asia remains the focus of growth in nuclear power, not least because of this region´s robust economic growth.